Is home advantage dead in the Bundesliga?
Following Tuesday night’s action in the Bundesliga, which included Bayern’s 1-0 win at Borussia Dortmund, many are continuing to conclude that home advantage is now dead in football’s new normal.
There have now been 22 games in the Bundesliga since football resumed.
Of those matches, there have only been 3 home wins (14%).
The only teams to register home wins are Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin.
Meanwhile, there have been 6 draws (27%) and a staggering 13 away wins (59%).
No crowds – no home advantage as yet. 22 games played since @Bundesliga_EN returned. Only 3 home wins. Away team has scored 3 or more goals in 8 games.
— Adrian Bevington (@ABevington11) May 27, 2020
Why Aston Villa & Brighton should be concerned
The likes of Sky Sports have attempted to forecast how the trend of results in the Bundesliga could impact teams in the Premier League when football restarts.
According to Sky Sports, there’s been a “30 per cent slump for success on home soil since the league restarted” in Germany.
If that trend continues in the Premier League, then the teams with more home matches to play in their season would be at a disadvantage.
That could spell terrible news for Aston Villa, who are second-bottom of the league, as they have a league-high 6 home games remaining. Those games are against Sheffield United, Chelsea, Wolves, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.
Brighton, who are two points clear of the relegation zone, could also be in trouble.
Brighton have 5 home games remaining, as they need to host Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle.
There have been only three home wins in 22 Bundesliga games played behind closed doors, which suggests home advantage is wiped out without fans.
We take a look at how it could effect the Premier League return 👇
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 27, 2020
How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away
How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away
Credit to Sky Sports for this image.
Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club
Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club
Credit to Sky Sports for this image.
How many away wins have there been in the Bundesliga 2 & Czech Liga 1?
Some may raise eyebrows at trying to predict how Premier League games will play out by looking at what’s been happening in the Bundesliga.
That’s because the results from other leagues playing behind closed doors fail to back up the ‘home advantage is dead’ theory.
The German second tier, Bundesliga 2, is also currently being played behind closed doors.
There have been 20 games in the Bundesliga 2, breaking down as follows: 8 home wins (40%), 8 draws (40%) and only 4 away wins (20%).
While, in the opening five matches of the Czech Liga 1 season (admittedly, a small sample size), there have been 2 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win.
Premier League table as it stands:
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | F | A | D | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool FC | 29 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 21 | 45 | 82 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 28 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 57 |
| 3 | Leicester City | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 58 | 28 | 30 | 53 |
| 4 | Chelsea FC | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 48 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 44 | 30 | 14 | 45 |
| 6 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 41 | 34 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Sheffield United | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 43 |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 41 |
| 9 | Arsenal FC | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 40 |
| 10 | Burnley FC | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 39 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 39 |
| 12 | Everton FC | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 37 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 35 |
| 14 | Southampton FC | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 29 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 27 |
| 17 | Watford FC | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 27 |
| 18 | AFC Bournemouth | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 27 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 25 |
| 20 | Norwich City | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 21 |
Also see: Best Netflix, Amazon & YouTube football documentaries & movies to watch during coronavirus isolation
9 best football documentaries to watch on ESPN+ during COVID-19 quarantine
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